ARM invading Intel x86 home turf, says IC Insights

ARM is ‘invading the x86 MPU home turf’ and is threatening Intel in PCs, desktop systems and servers, says Arizona analyst IC Insights.

“The spread of ARM-based processors threatens to go beyond tablet computers and invade the x86 MPU turf in mainstream home PCs, desktop systems, and even network servers,” says Bill McLean, CEO of IC Insights.

“The steep takeoff of touch-screen tablets has turned the portable-computer segment upside down,” adds McLean, “with Intel and AMD scrambling to head off the overwhelming success of ARM-based processors in tablets.”

ARM processors were used in over 90% of the 17m tablets sold by all systems suppliers in 2010, and nearly that same share is expected in 2011. 

IC Insights reckons that the IC market will top $300bn for the first time in 2013.

The IC market topped $10bn in 1980, reached $100bn in 1995 and hit $200bn in 2005. 

It took 15 years for the market to grow from $10bn to $100bn, 10 years to double in size to $200bn, and will take eight years to increase another $100bn to reach $300bn.

2011 units are forecast to top 200bn for the first time. Shipments of analogue devices are forecast to surpass 100bn and, for the first time, account for over half the market.

MOS memory is forecast to have the strongest market CAGR of all the major product categories during the 2008-2015 time period, with average annual growth of 12%. 

Over the same period, NAND flash memory is forecast to have 20% CAGR.

Rising demand for tablet PCs, smartphones, and solid-state drives will drive increasing sales of NAND flash through 2015.

Total smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 60% in 2011 to 440m units, after increasing 56% to 275 million in 2010. 

Between 1Q10 and 4Q11, quarterly smartphone shipments are expected to rise by an average of 13% per quarter.  This is significant because smartphones contain as much as 9x more NAND flash than a basic or enhanced cellphone.

Market momentum for automotive-related ICs continues with the automotive application-specific analogue market forecast to grow 32% in 2011.

Strong growth is also forecast this year for the Automotive Special Purpose Logic/MPR segment and in the market for 32-bit MCUs.  Sophisticated safety systems, driver information systems, and engine control units will keep the automotive IC market active through 2015.