LED prices to fall 90% by 2015

LED prices will fall by 90% in four years, according to the CEO of a venture capital company Vantage Point.

Vantage Point has backed four LED companies Huga Optotech of Taiwan, Glo of Sweden,  and the US companies Switch Bulb Co and Bridgelux.  

Vantage Point’s CEO, Alan Salzman, says he expects LED prices to fall from the 1 cent-per-lumen of today to 0.25 cents-per-lumen by the end of next year to 0.10 cents-per-lumen by 2015.

Salzman gives no reason for the price drop except the effects of competition and the driving force of regulation but there are technical reasons why prices may drop.

One is the move to larger silicon carbide wafers which will bring prices down. For instance Cree is adding 150mm wafers to replace 100mm.

However, the most significant cost reduction of all could come from using GaN-on-Silicon wafers – if this technology proves to be possible.

Salzman is saying that LEDs will account for 50% of all general purpose lighting by 2016.

A good design quality LED will last for 40,000 hours whereas a good quality incandescent bulb lasts 1,000 hours.